Atalanta vs Cagliari prediction
Serie A
Kickoff: 19:45
Final result
Atalanta 1–2 Cagliari
Prediction published 12 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 12 Sep 2026, 22:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Atalanta
G. Gaetano Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 5.2%
I. Hien Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
K. Sulemana Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
G. Gaetano Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 5.2%
I. Hien Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
K. Sulemana Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Cagliari
M. Felici Attacker
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 1.7%
R. Idrissi Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
M. Nzola Unknown
Missing Fixture · Lacking Match Fitness · impact 0%
Y. Trepy Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
M. Felici Attacker
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 1.7%
R. Idrissi Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
M. Nzola Unknown
Missing Fixture · Lacking Match Fitness · impact 0%
Y. Trepy Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
46% 42%
Draw
27% 28%
Away
27% 30%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 71% · edge +5 pts · odds 1.33
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Atalanta played Cagliari. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 46% to Atalanta, 27% to a draw and 27% to Cagliari.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Atalanta have a 46% chance of winning. Draw probability is 27%. Cagliari have a 27% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.