Transparent performance
Accuracy tracker
This tracker starts with the improved system. Every published selection is frozen before the event, graded separately and shown with its final match result.
Accuracy is calculated from individually published and graded selections. Pushes, void fixtures and pending selections are excluded from the accuracy percentage.
All evaluated
62.5%
202 correct from 323 evaluated
Last 30 days
60.1%
137 correct from 228 evaluated
Last 7 days
61.9%
65 correct from 105 evaluated
Awaiting results
0
Not included in accuracy
Brier score
0.224
Lower is better
Log loss
0.6407
Lower is better
Recorded-odds ROI
0.1%
At recorded decimal odds · n=254
By sport
Calibration by confidence
Higher model confidence should correspond to better realised accuracy. Small samples are not conclusive.
Forecast 50–59%
36.1%
realised · n=72
Forecast 60–69%
67.2%
realised · n=131
Forecast 70%+
73.3%
realised · n=120
Recent prediction record
Each row pairs the exact pre-match selection and probability with the final score and its graded outcome.
| Fixture | Sport | Published prediction | Final result | Graded outcome | Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Fire W vs Golden State Valkyries W Sep 23, 2026 · 02:00 | basketball | Over 157.5 points Model probability: 85.6% Recorded decimal odds: 1.87 · API-Sports bookmaker consensus | 82–90 Final score | Won | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Las Vegas Aces W vs Los Angeles Sparks W Sep 23, 2026 · 02:00 | basketball | Home moneyline lean Model probability: 83% | 89–79 Final score | Won | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Chicago Sky W vs Toronto Tempo W Sep 23, 2026 · 00:00 | basketball | Home moneyline lean Model probability: 78% | 97–85 Final score | Won | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Washington Mystics W vs Connecticut Sun W Sep 22, 2026 · 23:30 | basketball | Home moneyline lean Model probability: 91% | 79–69 Final score | Won | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Phoenix Mercury W vs Dallas Wings W Sep 22, 2026 · 02:00 | basketball | Over 172.5 points Model probability: 74.5% Recorded decimal odds: 1.83 · API-Sports bookmaker consensus | 87–86 Final score | Won | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Las Vegas Aces W vs Seattle Storm W Sep 21, 2026 · 01:00 | basketball | Home moneyline lean Model probability: 91% | 98–77 Final score | Won | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Los Angeles Sparks W vs Portland Fire W Sep 20, 2026 · 23:00 | basketball | Home moneyline lean Model probability: 59% | 105–84 Final score | Won | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Indiana Fever W vs Washington Mystics W Sep 20, 2026 · 20:00 | basketball | Home moneyline lean Model probability: 76% | 77–93 Final score | Lost | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Toronto Tempo W vs New York Liberty W Sep 20, 2026 · 19:00 | basketball | Away moneyline lean Model probability: 72% | 69–106 Final score | Won | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Connecticut Sun W vs Minnesota Lynx W Sep 20, 2026 · 17:00 | basketball | Away moneyline lean Model probability: 84% | 89–101 Final score | Won | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Golden State Valkyries W vs Seattle Storm W Sep 20, 2026 · 01:00 | basketball | Home moneyline Model probability: 92% Recorded decimal odds: 1.11 · API-Sports bookmaker consensus | 70–57 Final score | Won | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Golden State Valkyries W vs Seattle Storm W Sep 20, 2026 · 01:00 | basketball | Over 155.5 points Model probability: 83.8% Recorded decimal odds: 1.90 · API-Sports bookmaker consensus | 70–57 Final score | Lost | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain Sep 20, 2026 · 19:45 | football | Under 3.5 Goals Model probability: 59% Recorded decimal odds: 1.88 · API-Sports bookmaker consensus | 1–2 Final score | Won | football-poisson-2.3 |
| Nice vs Lille Sep 20, 2026 · 16:15 | football | Under 3.5 Goals Model probability: 82% Recorded decimal odds: 1.33 · API-Sports bookmaker consensus | 2–1 Final score | Won | football-poisson-2.3 |
| Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 Sep 20, 2026 · 14:00 | football | Under 3.5 Goals Model probability: 66% | 2–1 Final score | Won | football-poisson-2.3 |
| SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim Sep 20, 2026 · 18:30 | football | Under 3.5 Goals Model probability: 67% Recorded decimal odds: 1.73 · API-Sports bookmaker consensus | 3–1 Final score | Lost | football-poisson-2.3 |
Method: every first-published selection and its available odds are stored immutably before kickoff. Wins, losses and pushes are graded after the final result; pending, postponed and void events are excluded. Historical results are not a guarantee of future performance.