Transparent performance
Accuracy tracker
This tracker starts with the improved system. Every published selection is frozen before the event, graded separately and shown with its final match result.
Accuracy is calculated from individually published and graded selections. Pushes, void fixtures and pending selections are excluded from the accuracy percentage.
All evaluated
62.5%
55 correct from 88 evaluated
Last 30 days
62.2%
28 correct from 45 evaluated
Last 7 days
64%
16 correct from 25 evaluated
Awaiting results
0
Not included in accuracy
Brier score
0.2339
Lower is better
Log loss
0.6646
Lower is better
Recorded-odds ROI
-3.9%
At recorded decimal odds · n=63
By sport
Calibration by confidence
Higher model confidence should correspond to better realised accuracy. Small samples are not conclusive.
Forecast 50–59%
27.3%
realised · n=11
Forecast 60–69%
64%
realised · n=25
Forecast 70%+
69.2%
realised · n=52
Recent prediction record
Each row pairs the exact pre-match selection and probability with the final score and its graded outcome.
| Fixture | Sport | Published prediction | Final result | Graded outcome | Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Fire W vs Golden State Valkyries W Sep 23, 2026 · 02:00 | basketball | Over 157.5 points Model probability: 85.6% Recorded decimal odds: 1.87 · API-Sports bookmaker consensus | 82–90 Final score | Won | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Las Vegas Aces W vs Los Angeles Sparks W Sep 23, 2026 · 02:00 | basketball | Home moneyline lean Model probability: 83% | 89–79 Final score | Won | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Chicago Sky W vs Toronto Tempo W Sep 23, 2026 · 00:00 | basketball | Home moneyline lean Model probability: 78% | 97–85 Final score | Won | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Washington Mystics W vs Connecticut Sun W Sep 22, 2026 · 23:30 | basketball | Home moneyline lean Model probability: 91% | 79–69 Final score | Won | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Phoenix Mercury W vs Dallas Wings W Sep 22, 2026 · 02:00 | basketball | Over 172.5 points Model probability: 74.5% Recorded decimal odds: 1.83 · API-Sports bookmaker consensus | 87–86 Final score | Won | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Las Vegas Aces W vs Seattle Storm W Sep 21, 2026 · 01:00 | basketball | Home moneyline lean Model probability: 91% | 98–77 Final score | Won | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Los Angeles Sparks W vs Portland Fire W Sep 20, 2026 · 23:00 | basketball | Home moneyline lean Model probability: 59% | 105–84 Final score | Won | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Indiana Fever W vs Washington Mystics W Sep 20, 2026 · 20:00 | basketball | Home moneyline lean Model probability: 76% | 77–93 Final score | Lost | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Toronto Tempo W vs New York Liberty W Sep 20, 2026 · 19:00 | basketball | Away moneyline lean Model probability: 72% | 69–106 Final score | Won | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Connecticut Sun W vs Minnesota Lynx W Sep 20, 2026 · 17:00 | basketball | Away moneyline lean Model probability: 84% | 89–101 Final score | Won | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Golden State Valkyries W vs Seattle Storm W Sep 20, 2026 · 01:00 | basketball | Over 155.5 points Model probability: 83.8% Recorded decimal odds: 1.90 · API-Sports bookmaker consensus | 70–57 Final score | Lost | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Golden State Valkyries W vs Seattle Storm W Sep 20, 2026 · 01:00 | basketball | Home moneyline Model probability: 92% Recorded decimal odds: 1.11 · API-Sports bookmaker consensus | 70–57 Final score | Won | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Atlanta Dream W vs Chicago Sky W Sep 19, 2026 · 23:00 | basketball | Home moneyline lean Model probability: 88% | 106–81 Final score | Won | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Dallas Wings W vs Phoenix Mercury W Sep 19, 2026 · 17:00 | basketball | Home moneyline lean Model probability: 87% | 87–82 Final score | Won | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Golden State Valkyries W vs Portland Fire W Sep 19, 2026 · 02:00 | basketball | Over 161.5 points Model probability: 77.1% Recorded decimal odds: 1.91 · API-Sports bookmaker consensus | 82–66 Final score | Lost | basketball-rating-2.3 |
| Toronto Tempo W vs Indiana Fever W Sep 18, 2026 · 23:30 | basketball | Under 189.5 points Model probability: 71.7% Recorded decimal odds: 1.80 · API-Sports bookmaker consensus | 85–103 Final score | Won | basketball-rating-2.3 |
Method: every first-published selection and its available odds are stored immutably before kickoff. Wins, losses and pushes are graded after the final result; pending, postponed and void events are excluded. Historical results are not a guarantee of future performance.