Transparent performance
Accuracy tracker
This tracker starts with the improved system. Every published selection is frozen before the event, graded separately and shown with its final match result.
Accuracy is calculated from individually published and graded selections. Pushes, void fixtures and pending selections are excluded from the accuracy percentage.
All evaluated
62.6%
147 correct from 235 evaluated
Last 30 days
59.6%
109 correct from 183 evaluated
Last 7 days
61.3%
49 correct from 80 evaluated
Awaiting results
0
Not included in accuracy
Brier score
0.2203
Lower is better
Log loss
0.6317
Lower is better
Recorded-odds ROI
1.4%
At recorded decimal odds · n=191
By sport
Calibration by confidence
Higher model confidence should correspond to better realised accuracy. Small samples are not conclusive.
Forecast 50–59%
37.7%
realised · n=61
Forecast 60–69%
67.9%
realised · n=106
Forecast 70%+
76.5%
realised · n=68
Recent prediction record
Each row pairs the exact pre-match selection and probability with the final score and its graded outcome.
| Fixture | Sport | Published prediction | Final result | Graded outcome | Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice vs Lille Sep 20, 2026 · 16:15 | football | Under 3.5 Goals Model probability: 82% Recorded decimal odds: 1.33 · API-Sports bookmaker consensus | 2–1 Final score | Won | football-poisson-2.3 |
| Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain Sep 20, 2026 · 19:45 | football | Under 3.5 Goals Model probability: 59% Recorded decimal odds: 1.88 · API-Sports bookmaker consensus | 1–2 Final score | Won | football-poisson-2.3 |
| Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 Sep 20, 2026 · 14:00 | football | Under 3.5 Goals Model probability: 66% | 2–1 Final score | Won | football-poisson-2.3 |
| SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim Sep 20, 2026 · 18:30 | football | Under 3.5 Goals Model probability: 67% Recorded decimal odds: 1.73 · API-Sports bookmaker consensus | 3–1 Final score | Lost | football-poisson-2.3 |
| FC Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg Sep 20, 2026 · 16:30 | football | Under 3.5 Goals Model probability: 64% Recorded decimal odds: 1.65 · API-Sports bookmaker consensus | 0–0 Final score | Won | football-poisson-2.3 |
| Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig Sep 20, 2026 · 14:30 | football | Home Win Model probability: 60% Recorded decimal odds: 1.98 · API-Sports bookmaker consensus | 2–0 Final score | Won | football-poisson-2.3 |
| Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig Sep 20, 2026 · 14:30 | football | Under 3.5 Goals Model probability: 60% Recorded decimal odds: 1.95 · API-Sports bookmaker consensus | 2–0 Final score | Won | football-poisson-2.3 |
| AC Milan vs Lecce Sep 20, 2026 · 19:45 | football | Under 3.5 Goals Model probability: 76% Recorded decimal odds: 1.47 · API-Sports bookmaker consensus | 3–0 Final score | Won | football-poisson-2.3 |
| Juventus vs Atalanta Sep 20, 2026 · 17:00 | football | Under 3.5 Goals Model probability: 70% | 2–0 Final score | Won | football-poisson-2.3 |
| Juventus vs Atalanta Sep 20, 2026 · 17:00 | football | Home Win Model probability: 57% | 2–0 Final score | Won | football-poisson-2.3 |
| Juventus vs Atalanta Sep 20, 2026 · 17:00 | football | Home Win or Draw Model probability: 80% | 2–0 Final score | Won | football-poisson-2.3 |
| Parma vs Genoa Sep 20, 2026 · 14:00 | football | Home Win or Draw Model probability: 76% | 2–1 Final score | Won | football-poisson-2.3 |
| Parma vs Genoa Sep 20, 2026 · 14:00 | football | Under 3.5 Goals Model probability: 81% | 2–1 Final score | Won | football-poisson-2.3 |
| Frosinone vs Como Sep 20, 2026 · 14:00 | football | Under 3.5 Goals Model probability: 65% Recorded decimal odds: 1.72 · API-Sports bookmaker consensus | 2–0 Final score | Won | football-poisson-2.3 |
| Fiorentina vs Napoli Sep 20, 2026 · 11:30 | football | Over 2.5 Goals Model probability: 58% Recorded decimal odds: 1.85 · API-Sports bookmaker consensus | 1–1 Final score | Lost | football-poisson-2.3 |
| Valencia vs Real Sociedad Sep 20, 2026 · 20:00 | football | Over 2.5 Goals Model probability: 55% Recorded decimal odds: 1.93 · API-Sports bookmaker consensus | 2–3 Final score | Won | football-poisson-2.3 |
Method: every first-published selection and its available odds are stored immutably before kickoff. Wins, losses and pushes are graded after the final result; pending, postponed and void events are excluded. Historical results are not a guarantee of future performance.