Genoa vs Frosinone prediction
Serie A
Kickoff: 14:00
Final result
Genoa 1–1 Frosinone
Prediction published 12 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 12 Sep 2026, 17:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Genoa
E. Havel Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
L. Venturino Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
E. Havel Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
L. Venturino Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Frosinone
No verified absences returned.
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
No verified absence currently requires a probability adjustment.
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
match winner · verified value edge
Away Win
Market 27.2% · edge +29.8 pts · odds 3.5
Lost
total goals · verified value edge
Over 2.5 Goals
Market 50.1% · edge +6.9 pts · odds 1.91
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Genoa played Frosinone. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 21% to Genoa, 22% to a draw and 57% to Frosinone.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Genoa have a 21% chance of winning. Draw probability is 22%. Frosinone have a 57% chance. Frozen selections: Away Win and Over 2.5 Goals.