Lecce vs Monza prediction
Serie A
Kickoff: 14:00
Final result
Lecce 3–2 Monza
Prediction published 13 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 13 Sep 2026, 16:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Lecce
M. Berisha Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Rest · impact 1.3%
O. Gandelman Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 1.2%
W. Geubbels Attacker
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 3%
M. Berisha Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Rest · impact 1.3%
O. Gandelman Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 1.2%
W. Geubbels Attacker
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 3%
Monza
P. Ciurria Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
C. Ngonge Unknown
Missing Fixture · Lacking Match Fitness · impact 0%
M. Pessina Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
I. Toure Unknown
Missing Fixture · Contusion · impact 0%
J. Ziolkowski Unknown
Missing Fixture · Foot Injury · impact 0%
P. Ciurria Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
C. Ngonge Unknown
Missing Fixture · Lacking Match Fitness · impact 0%
M. Pessina Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
I. Toure Unknown
Missing Fixture · Contusion · impact 0%
J. Ziolkowski Unknown
Missing Fixture · Foot Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
43% 39%
Draw
23% 24%
Away
34% 37%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Over 2.5 Goals
Market 41.3% · edge +19.7 pts · odds 2.3
Won
both teams score · verified value edge
BTTS Yes
Market 48.8% · edge +14.2 pts · odds 1.91
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Lecce played Monza. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 43% to Lecce, 23% to a draw and 34% to Monza.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Lecce have a 43% chance of winning. Draw probability is 23%. Monza have a 34% chance. Frozen selections: Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS Yes.