Napoli vs Bologna prediction
Serie A
Kickoff: 17:00
Final result
Napoli 1–0 Bologna
Prediction published 13 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 13 Sep 2026, 19:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Napoli
Alisson Santos Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 3.7%
F. Anguissa Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 4.5%
A. Buongiorno Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Giovane Attacker
Missing Fixture · Groin Injury · impact 1.2%
L. Marianucci Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
S. McTominay Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Heart Problems · impact 3.3%
A. Meret Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 5%
Alisson Santos Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 3.7%
F. Anguissa Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 4.5%
A. Buongiorno Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Giovane Attacker
Missing Fixture · Groin Injury · impact 1.2%
L. Marianucci Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
S. McTominay Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Heart Problems · impact 3.3%
A. Meret Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 5%
Bologna
A. Dovbyk Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.6%
O. El Azzouzi Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Thigh Injury · impact 2.3%
R. Orsolini Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 2.3%
N. Zortea Defender
Missing Fixture · Hip Injury · impact 2.4%
A. Dovbyk Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.6%
O. El Azzouzi Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Thigh Injury · impact 2.3%
R. Orsolini Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 2.3%
N. Zortea Defender
Missing Fixture · Hip Injury · impact 2.4%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
53% 49%
Draw
24% 27%
Away
23% 24%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
double chance
Home Win or Draw
Won
total goals
Under 3.5 Goals
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Napoli played Bologna. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 53% to Napoli, 24% to a draw and 23% to Bologna.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Napoli have a 53% chance of winning. Draw probability is 24%. Bologna have a 23% chance. Frozen selections: Home Win or Draw and Under 3.5 Goals.