Venezia vs Fiorentina prediction
Serie A
Kickoff: 19:45
Final result
Venezia 2–4 Fiorentina
Prediction published 11 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 11 Sep 2026, 22:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Venezia
A. Adorante Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hernia · impact 0%
T. Basic Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Foot Injury · impact 3.3%
A. Bella-Kotchap Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 4%
M. Dagasso Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 1.5%
B. Franjic Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 3.1%
M. Sverko Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hip Injury · impact 0%
A. Adorante Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hernia · impact 0%
T. Basic Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Foot Injury · impact 3.3%
A. Bella-Kotchap Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 4%
M. Dagasso Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 1.5%
B. Franjic Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 3.1%
M. Sverko Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hip Injury · impact 0%
Fiorentina
F. Parisi Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
R. Sottil Unknown
Missing Fixture · Back Injury · impact 0%
F. Parisi Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
R. Sottil Unknown
Missing Fixture · Back Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
53% 46%
Draw
23% 24%
Away
24% 30%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
match winner · verified value edge
Home Win
Market 31% · edge +22 pts · odds 3.1
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Venezia played Fiorentina. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 53% to Venezia, 23% to a draw and 24% to Fiorentina.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Venezia have a 53% chance of winning. Draw probability is 23%. Fiorentina have a 24% chance. Frozen selections: Home Win.