Fiorentina vs Napoli prediction
Serie A
Kickoff: 11:30
Final result
Fiorentina 1–1 Napoli
Prediction published 20 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 20 Sep 2026, 14:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Fiorentina
F. Parisi Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
R. Sottil Unknown
Questionable · Back Injury · impact 0%
F. Parisi Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
R. Sottil Unknown
Questionable · Back Injury · impact 0%
Napoli
Alisson Santos Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 3.1%
A. Buongiorno Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Giovane Attacker
Missing Fixture · Groin Injury · impact 1.2%
L. Marianucci Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
S. McTominay Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Heart Problems · impact 2.7%
A. Meret Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 4.1%
L. Spinazzola Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 4.4%
Alisson Santos Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 3.1%
A. Buongiorno Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Giovane Attacker
Missing Fixture · Groin Injury · impact 1.2%
L. Marianucci Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
S. McTominay Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Heart Problems · impact 2.7%
A. Meret Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 4.1%
L. Spinazzola Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 4.4%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
26% 36%
Draw
23% 24%
Away
51% 40%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Over 2.5 Goals
Market 51.7% · edge +6.3 pts · odds 1.85
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Fiorentina played Napoli. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 26% to Fiorentina, 23% to a draw and 51% to Napoli.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Fiorentina have a 26% chance of winning. Draw probability is 23%. Napoli have a 51% chance. Frozen selections: Over 2.5 Goals.