Monza vs Sassuolo prediction
Serie A
Kickoff: 19:45
Final result
Monza 2–1 Sassuolo
Prediction published 18 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 18 Sep 2026, 22:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Monza
P. Ciurria Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
M. Pessina Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
I. Toure Unknown
Missing Fixture · Contusion · impact 0%
J. Ziolkowski Unknown
Missing Fixture · Foot Injury · impact 0%
P. Ciurria Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
M. Pessina Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
I. Toure Unknown
Missing Fixture · Contusion · impact 0%
J. Ziolkowski Unknown
Missing Fixture · Foot Injury · impact 0%
Sassuolo
D. Boloca Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
F. Cande Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
J. Idzes Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 4%
I. Kone Unknown
Missing Fixture · Broken Leg · impact 0%
Y. Paz Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
E. Pieragnolo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
C. Volpato Attacker
Missing Fixture · Thigh Injury · impact 3.4%
S. Walukiewicz Unknown
Questionable · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
D. Boloca Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
F. Cande Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
J. Idzes Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 4%
I. Kone Unknown
Missing Fixture · Broken Leg · impact 0%
Y. Paz Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
E. Pieragnolo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
C. Volpato Attacker
Missing Fixture · Thigh Injury · impact 3.4%
S. Walukiewicz Unknown
Questionable · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
36% 41%
Draw
23% 23%
Away
41% 36%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Over 2.5 Goals
Market 53% · edge +13 pts · odds 1.8
Won
both teams score · verified value edge
BTTS Yes
Market 57.4% · edge +9.6 pts · odds 1.61
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Monza played Sassuolo. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 36% to Monza, 23% to a draw and 41% to Sassuolo.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Monza have a 36% chance of winning. Draw probability is 23%. Sassuolo have a 41% chance. Frozen selections: Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS Yes.