Parma vs Genoa prediction
Serie A
Kickoff: 14:00
Final result
Parma 2–1 Genoa
Prediction published 20 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 20 Sep 2026, 16:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Parma
A. Bernabe Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 3%
H. Nicolussi Caviglia Unknown
Missing Fixture · Groin Injury · impact 0%
L. Valenti Defender
Missing Fixture · Coach's decision · impact 1.7%
A. Bernabe Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 3%
H. Nicolussi Caviglia Unknown
Missing Fixture · Groin Injury · impact 0%
L. Valenti Defender
Missing Fixture · Coach's decision · impact 1.7%
Genoa
E. Havel Attacker
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 1.2%
J. Vasquez Defender
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 5%
L. Venturino Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
E. Havel Attacker
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 1.2%
J. Vasquez Defender
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 5%
L. Venturino Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
49% 50%
Draw
27% 27%
Away
24% 23%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals
Under 3.5 Goals
Won
double chance
Home Win or Draw
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Parma played Genoa. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 49% to Parma, 27% to a draw and 24% to Genoa.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Parma have a 49% chance of winning. Draw probability is 27%. Genoa have a 24% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals and Home Win or Draw.