Auxerre vs Nice prediction
Ligue 1
Kickoff: 19:45
Final result
Auxerre 1–0 Nice
Prediction published 12 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 12 Sep 2026, 22:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Auxerre
A. Diousse Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
S. Fofana Unknown
Missing Fixture · Groin Injury · impact 0%
B. Okoh Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
M. Senaya Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
T. Siwe Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.2%
A. Diousse Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
S. Fofana Unknown
Missing Fixture · Groin Injury · impact 0%
B. Okoh Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
M. Senaya Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
T. Siwe Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.2%
Nice
L. Abergel Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
M. Bombito Unknown
Missing Fixture · Leg Injury · impact 0%
A. Mendy Defender
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 2.9%
M. Sanson Unknown
Missing Fixture · Surgery · impact 0%
L. Abergel Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
M. Bombito Unknown
Missing Fixture · Leg Injury · impact 0%
A. Mendy Defender
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 2.9%
M. Sanson Unknown
Missing Fixture · Surgery · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
48% 49%
Draw
23% 23%
Away
29% 28%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Over 2.5 Goals
Market 49.2% · edge +9.8 pts · odds 1.94
Lost
both teams score · verified value edge
BTTS Yes
Market 54.7% · edge +5.3 pts · odds 1.7
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Auxerre played Nice. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 48% to Auxerre, 23% to a draw and 29% to Nice.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Auxerre have a 48% chance of winning. Draw probability is 23%. Nice have a 29% chance. Frozen selections: Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS Yes.