Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain prediction
Ligue 1
Kickoff: 19:45
Final result
Stade Brestois 29 0–1 Paris Saint Germain
Prediction published 13 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 13 Sep 2026, 22:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Stade Brestois 29
R. Cagnon Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Shoulder Injury · impact 1.2%
B. Chardonnet Unknown
Missing Fixture · Calf Injury · impact 0%
M. Diambou Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 2.8%
N. Edjouma Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.5%
R. Cagnon Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Shoulder Injury · impact 1.2%
B. Chardonnet Unknown
Missing Fixture · Calf Injury · impact 0%
M. Diambou Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 2.8%
N. Edjouma Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.5%
Paris Saint Germain
No verified absences returned.
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
53% 48%
Draw
22% 23%
Away
25% 29%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
match winner · verified value edge
Home Win
Market 8.6% · edge +44.4 pts · odds 11
Lost
both teams score · verified value edge
BTTS Yes
Market 53.1% · edge +8.9 pts · odds 1.75
Lost
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 52.5% · edge +6.5 pts · odds 1.82
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Stade Brestois 29 played Paris Saint Germain. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 53% to Stade Brestois 29, 22% to a draw and 25% to Paris Saint Germain.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Stade Brestois 29 have a 53% chance of winning. Draw probability is 22%. Paris Saint Germain have a 25% chance. Frozen selections: Home Win, BTTS Yes and Under 3.5 Goals.