Lorient vs Toulouse prediction
Ligue 1
Kickoff: 19:45
Final result
Lorient 2–2 Toulouse
Prediction published 12 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 12 Sep 2026, 22:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Lorient
B. Fadiga Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.2%
B. Fadiga Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.2%
Toulouse
A. Donnum Unknown
Missing Fixture · Personal Reasons · impact 0%
A. Francis Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
R. Nicolaisen Defender
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 5%
G. Restes Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 4.7%
A. Donnum Unknown
Missing Fixture · Personal Reasons · impact 0%
A. Francis Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
R. Nicolaisen Defender
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 5%
G. Restes Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 4.7%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
51% 57%
Draw
23% 21%
Away
26% 22%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Over 2.5 Goals
Market 48.9% · edge +11.1 pts · odds 1.95
Won
both teams score · verified value edge
BTTS Yes
Market 54.7% · edge +5.3 pts · odds 1.7
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Lorient played Toulouse. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 51% to Lorient, 23% to a draw and 26% to Toulouse.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Lorient have a 51% chance of winning. Draw probability is 23%. Toulouse have a 26% chance. Frozen selections: Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS Yes.