Paris FC vs Lyon prediction
Ligue 1
Kickoff: 19:45
Final result
Paris FC 0–0 Lyon
Prediction published 12 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 12 Sep 2026, 22:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Paris FC
T. De Smet Defender
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 1.2%
E. Mbemba Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
Otavio Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 3.6%
N. Sangui Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
J. Ikone Unknown
Questionable · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
T. De Smet Defender
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 1.2%
E. Mbemba Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
Otavio Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 3.6%
N. Sangui Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
J. Ikone Unknown
Questionable · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
Lyon
J. Duranville Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.1%
A. Hamdani Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
R. Himbert Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
M. Ouedraogo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
J. Duranville Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.1%
A. Hamdani Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
R. Himbert Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
M. Ouedraogo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
50% 48%
Draw
24% 24%
Away
26% 28%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 63.7% · edge +6.3 pts · odds 1.46
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Paris FC played Lyon. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 50% to Paris FC, 24% to a draw and 26% to Lyon.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Paris FC have a 50% chance of winning. Draw probability is 24%. Lyon have a 26% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.