Le Mans vs Lorient prediction
Ligue 1
Kickoff: 19:45
Final result
Le Mans 2–1 Lorient
Prediction published 19 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 19 Sep 2026, 22:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Le Mans
L. Buades Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Knock · impact 3.3%
E. Colas Attacker
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.5%
T. Eyoum Defender
Missing Fixture · Coach's decision · impact 3.3%
E. Quarshie Unknown
Missing Fixture · Coach's decision · impact 0%
M. Rossignol Unknown
Missing Fixture · Coach's decision · impact 0%
L. Buades Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Knock · impact 3.3%
E. Colas Attacker
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.5%
T. Eyoum Defender
Missing Fixture · Coach's decision · impact 3.3%
E. Quarshie Unknown
Missing Fixture · Coach's decision · impact 0%
M. Rossignol Unknown
Missing Fixture · Coach's decision · impact 0%
Lorient
B. Fadiga Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.2%
N. Mbamba Midfielder
Questionable · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
A. Tosin Attacker
Questionable · Illness · impact 0%
B. Fadiga Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.2%
N. Mbamba Midfielder
Questionable · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
A. Tosin Attacker
Questionable · Illness · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
38% 34%
Draw
26% 27%
Away
36% 39%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 66.3% · edge +6.7 pts · odds 1.4
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Le Mans played Lorient. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 38% to Le Mans, 26% to a draw and 36% to Lorient.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Le Mans have a 38% chance of winning. Draw probability is 26%. Lorient have a 36% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.