Lyon vs Rennes prediction
Ligue 1
Kickoff: 19:45
Final result
Lyon 4–0 Rennes
Prediction published 19 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 19 Sep 2026, 22:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Lyon
J. Duranville Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.9%
R. Himbert Attacker
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 1.9%
N. Kamara Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
N. Tagliafico Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2%
J. Duranville Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.9%
R. Himbert Attacker
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 1.9%
N. Kamara Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
N. Tagliafico Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2%
Rennes
No verified absences returned.
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
43% 39%
Draw
24% 25%
Away
33% 36%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 59.5% · edge +6.5 pts · odds 1.61
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Lyon played Rennes. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 43% to Lyon, 24% to a draw and 33% to Rennes.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Lyon have a 43% chance of winning. Draw probability is 24%. Rennes have a 33% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.