Monaco vs Lens prediction
Ligue 1
Kickoff: 19:45
Final result
Monaco 2–1 Lens
Prediction published 18 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 18 Sep 2026, 22:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Monaco
M. Coulibaly Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 3.4%
A. Fati Unknown
Missing Fixture · Calf Injury · impact 0%
S. Idumbo Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Groin Injury · impact 4.8%
A. Soubeir Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 2.1%
J. Teze Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.8%
F. Balogun Unknown
Questionable · Injury · impact 0%
T. Minamino Unknown
Questionable · Lacking Match Fitness · impact 0%
M. Coulibaly Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 3.4%
A. Fati Unknown
Missing Fixture · Calf Injury · impact 0%
S. Idumbo Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Groin Injury · impact 4.8%
A. Soubeir Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 2.1%
J. Teze Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.8%
F. Balogun Unknown
Questionable · Injury · impact 0%
T. Minamino Unknown
Questionable · Lacking Match Fitness · impact 0%
Lens
S. Abdulhamid Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Contusion · impact 2.1%
S. Baidoo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
J. Chavez Unknown
Missing Fixture · Thigh Injury · impact 0%
M. Nawrocki Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 2.8%
Y. Titraoui Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 3.7%
S. Abdulhamid Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Contusion · impact 2.1%
S. Baidoo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
J. Chavez Unknown
Missing Fixture · Thigh Injury · impact 0%
M. Nawrocki Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 2.8%
Y. Titraoui Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 3.7%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
66% 62%
Draw
20% 23%
Away
14% 15%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
match winner · verified value edge
Home Win
Market 46.3% · edge +19.7 pts · odds 2.07
Won
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 58.9% · edge +8.1 pts · odds 1.62
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Monaco played Lens. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 66% to Monaco, 20% to a draw and 14% to Lens.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Monaco have a 66% chance of winning. Draw probability is 20%. Lens have a 14% chance. Frozen selections: Home Win and Under 3.5 Goals.