Nice vs Lille prediction
Ligue 1
Kickoff: 16:15
Final result
Nice 2–1 Lille
Prediction published 20 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 20 Sep 2026, 19:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Nice
L. Abergel Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
M. Bombito Unknown
Missing Fixture · Leg Injury · impact 0%
A. Mendy Defender
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 2.5%
M. Sanson Unknown
Missing Fixture · Surgery · impact 0%
L. Abergel Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
M. Bombito Unknown
Missing Fixture · Leg Injury · impact 0%
A. Mendy Defender
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 2.5%
M. Sanson Unknown
Missing Fixture · Surgery · impact 0%
Lille
H. Igamane Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
T. Nianzou Defender
Missing Fixture · Knock · impact 1.2%
H. Igamane Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
T. Nianzou Defender
Missing Fixture · Knock · impact 1.2%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
27% 26%
Draw
28% 28%
Away
45% 46%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 70.6% · edge +11.4 pts · odds 1.33
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Nice played Lille. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 27% to Nice, 28% to a draw and 45% to Lille.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Nice have a 27% chance of winning. Draw probability is 28%. Lille have a 45% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.