Paris FC vs Strasbourg prediction
Ligue 1
Kickoff: 16:15
Final result
Paris FC 2–1 Strasbourg
Prediction published 19 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 19 Sep 2026, 19:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Paris FC
E. Mbemba Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
Otavio Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 3%
N. Sangui Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
T. De Smet Defender
Questionable · Inactive · impact 0%
E. Mbemba Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
Otavio Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 3%
N. Sangui Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
T. De Smet Defender
Questionable · Inactive · impact 0%
Strasbourg
M. Godo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
J. Panichelli Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
M. Godo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
J. Panichelli Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
55% 54%
Draw
21% 22%
Away
24% 24%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
match winner · verified value edge
Home Win
Market 47.7% · edge +7.3 pts · odds 2
Won
total goals · verified value edge
Over 2.5 Goals
Market 57.9% · edge +5.1 pts · odds 1.65
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Paris FC played Strasbourg. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 55% to Paris FC, 21% to a draw and 24% to Strasbourg.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Paris FC have a 55% chance of winning. Draw probability is 21%. Strasbourg have a 24% chance. Frozen selections: Home Win and Over 2.5 Goals.