Toulouse vs Le Havre prediction
Ligue 1
Kickoff: 19:45
Final result
Toulouse 3–2 Le Havre
Prediction published 19 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 19 Sep 2026, 22:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Toulouse
A. Francis Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
R. Nicolaisen Defender
Missing Fixture · Calf Injury · impact 4.1%
A. Francis Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
R. Nicolaisen Defender
Missing Fixture · Calf Injury · impact 4.1%
Le Havre
P. Argney Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
F. Mambimbi Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
L. Mpasi-Nzau Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 4%
T. Pembele Defender
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 3.4%
A. Toure Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
S. Zagadou Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
J. Mwanga Midfielder
Questionable · Groin Injury · impact 0%
R. Ndiaye Attacker
Questionable · Groin Injury · impact 0%
P. Argney Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
F. Mambimbi Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
L. Mpasi-Nzau Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 4%
T. Pembele Defender
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 3.4%
A. Toure Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
S. Zagadou Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
J. Mwanga Midfielder
Questionable · Groin Injury · impact 0%
R. Ndiaye Attacker
Questionable · Groin Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
36% 39%
Draw
27% 26%
Away
37% 35%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 65.4% · edge +11.6 pts · odds 1.43
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Toulouse played Le Havre. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 36% to Toulouse, 27% to a draw and 37% to Le Havre.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Toulouse have a 36% chance of winning. Draw probability is 27%. Le Havre have a 37% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.