Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain prediction
Ligue 1
Kickoff: 19:45
Final result
Marseille 1–2 Paris Saint Germain
Prediction published 20 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 20 Sep 2026, 22:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Marseille
G. Kondogbia Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 2.7%
T. Nnadi Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.7%
G. Kondogbia Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 2.7%
T. Nnadi Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.7%
Paris Saint Germain
A. Hakimi Defender
Missing Fixture · Thigh Injury · impact 4.5%
A. Hakimi Defender
Missing Fixture · Thigh Injury · impact 4.5%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
51% 51%
Draw
22% 22%
Away
27% 27%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 51.2% · edge +7.8 pts · odds 1.88
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Marseille played Paris Saint Germain. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 51% to Marseille, 22% to a draw and 27% to Paris Saint Germain.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Marseille have a 51% chance of winning. Draw probability is 22%. Paris Saint Germain have a 27% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.