Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest prediction
Premier League
Kickoff: 15:00
Final result
Aston Villa 1–2 Nottingham Forest
Prediction published 12 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 12 Sep 2026, 17:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Aston Villa
L. Goretzka Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Joao Gomes Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 1.8%
B. Madjo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
A. Onana Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
M. Cash Defender
Questionable · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
J. Manzambi Unknown
Questionable · Knee Injury · impact 0%
L. Goretzka Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Joao Gomes Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 1.8%
B. Madjo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
A. Onana Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
M. Cash Defender
Questionable · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
J. Manzambi Unknown
Questionable · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Nottingham Forest
N. Savona Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
N. Savona Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
38% 37%
Draw
26% 26%
Away
36% 37%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals
Under 3.5 Goals
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Aston Villa played Nottingham Forest. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 38% to Aston Villa, 26% to a draw and 36% to Nottingham Forest.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Aston Villa have a 38% chance of winning. Draw probability is 26%. Nottingham Forest have a 36% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.