Bournemouth vs Brentford prediction
Premier League
Kickoff: 15:00
Final result
Bournemouth 2–2 Brentford
Prediction published 12 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 12 Sep 2026, 17:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Bournemouth
A. Adli Unknown
Missing Fixture · Calf Injury · impact 0%
J. Araujo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Thigh Injury · impact 0%
E. J. Kroupi Unknown
Missing Fixture · Foot Injury · impact 0%
V. Milosavljevic Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
A. Adli Unknown
Missing Fixture · Calf Injury · impact 0%
J. Araujo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Thigh Injury · impact 0%
E. J. Kroupi Unknown
Missing Fixture · Foot Injury · impact 0%
V. Milosavljevic Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
Brentford
N. Collins Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 4%
J. Dasilva Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
M. Jensen Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.1%
A. Milambo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
S. van den Berg Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
N. Collins Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 4%
J. Dasilva Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
M. Jensen Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.1%
A. Milambo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
S. van den Berg Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
36% 40%
Draw
27% 26%
Away
37% 34%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 62.3% · edge +11.7 pts · odds 1.51
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Bournemouth played Brentford. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 36% to Bournemouth, 27% to a draw and 37% to Brentford.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Bournemouth have a 36% chance of winning. Draw probability is 27%. Brentford have a 37% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.