Chelsea vs Hull City prediction
Premier League
Kickoff: 15:00
Final result
Chelsea 2–2 Hull City
Prediction published 12 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 12 Sep 2026, 17:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Chelsea
M. Caicedo Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.4%
E. Emegha Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
J. Henderson Unknown
Missing Fixture · Wrist Injury · impact 0%
M. Palestra Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
M. Caicedo Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.4%
E. Emegha Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
J. Henderson Unknown
Missing Fixture · Wrist Injury · impact 0%
M. Palestra Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
Hull City
I. Ansah Unknown
Missing Fixture · Back Injury · impact 0%
J. Butland Unknown
Missing Fixture · Arm Injury · impact 0%
D. Gyabi Unknown
Missing Fixture · Groin Injury · impact 0%
C. Hughes Unknown
Missing Fixture · Groin Injury · impact 0%
E. Matazo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
H. Morita Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Calf Injury · impact 1.8%
I. Ansah Unknown
Missing Fixture · Back Injury · impact 0%
J. Butland Unknown
Missing Fixture · Arm Injury · impact 0%
D. Gyabi Unknown
Missing Fixture · Groin Injury · impact 0%
C. Hughes Unknown
Missing Fixture · Groin Injury · impact 0%
E. Matazo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
H. Morita Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Calf Injury · impact 1.8%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
44% 44%
Draw
23% 24%
Away
33% 32%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
both teams score · verified value edge
BTTS Yes
Market 50.3% · edge +12.7 pts · odds 1.85
Won
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 52.5% · edge +7.5 pts · odds 1.82
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Chelsea played Hull City. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 44% to Chelsea, 23% to a draw and 33% to Hull City.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Chelsea have a 44% chance of winning. Draw probability is 23%. Hull City have a 33% chance. Frozen selections: BTTS Yes and Under 3.5 Goals.