Leeds vs Newcastle prediction
Premier League
Kickoff: 20:00
Final result
Leeds 4–1 Newcastle
Prediction published 14 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 14 Sep 2026, 22:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Leeds
M. Joseph Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
J. Rodon Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.9%
M. Joseph Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
J. Rodon Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.9%
Newcastle
D. Burn Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
Joelinton Unknown
Missing Fixture · Thigh Injury · impact 0%
W. Osula Attacker
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 2.2%
E. Jaouen Goalkeeper
Questionable · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
D. Burn Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
Joelinton Unknown
Missing Fixture · Thigh Injury · impact 0%
W. Osula Attacker
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 2.2%
E. Jaouen Goalkeeper
Questionable · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
37% 37%
Draw
26% 26%
Away
37% 37%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 68.5% · edge +4.5 pts · odds 1.38
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Leeds played Newcastle. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 37% to Leeds, 26% to a draw and 37% to Newcastle.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Leeds have a 37% chance of winning. Draw probability is 26%. Newcastle have a 37% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.