Manchester United vs Manchester City prediction
Premier League
Kickoff: 16:30
Final result
Manchester United 0–1 Manchester City
Prediction published 13 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 13 Sep 2026, 19:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Manchester United
C. Baleba Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
A. Diallo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
T. Heaton Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
M. Ugarte Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
M. de Ligt Unknown
Missing Fixture · Back Injury · impact 0%
C. Baleba Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
A. Diallo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
T. Heaton Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
M. Ugarte Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
M. de Ligt Unknown
Missing Fixture · Back Injury · impact 0%
Manchester City
J. Doku Unknown
Missing Fixture · Calf Injury · impact 0%
N. O'Reilly Midfielder
Questionable · Back Injury · impact 0%
J. Doku Unknown
Missing Fixture · Calf Injury · impact 0%
N. O'Reilly Midfielder
Questionable · Back Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
No verified absence currently requires a probability adjustment.
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Over 2.5 Goals
Market 62.7% · edge +10.3 pts · odds 1.49
Lost
both teams score · verified value edge
BTTS Yes
Market 64.5% · edge +7.5 pts · odds 1.44
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Manchester United played Manchester City. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 39% to Manchester United, 21% to a draw and 40% to Manchester City.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Manchester United have a 39% chance of winning. Draw probability is 21%. Manchester City have a 40% chance. Frozen selections: Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS Yes.