Brentford vs Chelsea prediction
Premier League
Kickoff: 20:00
Final result
Brentford 3–0 Chelsea
Prediction published 18 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 18 Sep 2026, 22:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Brentford
N. Collins Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 3.3%
J. Dasilva Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
K. Furo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Surgery · impact 0%
M. Jensen Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.9%
S. van den Berg Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
N. Collins Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 3.3%
J. Dasilva Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
K. Furo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Surgery · impact 0%
M. Jensen Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.9%
S. van den Berg Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
Chelsea
Joao Pedro Attacker
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 6.2%
M. Caicedo Midfielder
Questionable · Injury · impact 0%
E. Emegha Unknown
Questionable · Injury · impact 0%
J. Henderson Unknown
Questionable · Wrist Injury · impact 0%
M. Palestra Unknown
Questionable · Injury · impact 0%
Joao Pedro Attacker
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 6.2%
M. Caicedo Midfielder
Questionable · Injury · impact 0%
E. Emegha Unknown
Questionable · Injury · impact 0%
J. Henderson Unknown
Questionable · Wrist Injury · impact 0%
M. Palestra Unknown
Questionable · Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
51% 51%
Draw
23% 24%
Away
26% 25%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 56.4% · edge +7.6 pts · odds 1.7
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Brentford played Chelsea. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 51% to Brentford, 23% to a draw and 26% to Chelsea.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Brentford have a 51% chance of winning. Draw probability is 23%. Chelsea have a 26% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.