Brighton vs Arsenal prediction
Premier League
Kickoff: 15:00
Final result
Brighton 3–0 Arsenal
Prediction published 19 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 19 Sep 2026, 17:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Brighton
F. Azeez Unknown
Missing Fixture · Abdominal strain · impact 0%
E. Ferguson Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
J. Hinshelwood Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 2.3%
Y. Minteh Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
K. Mitoma Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
M. Svoboda Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.2%
S. Tzimas Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
M. Wieffer Defender
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 2.9%
Z. Yohanna Attacker
Missing Fixture · Lacking Match Fitness · impact 1.3%
J. Hadjam Defender
Questionable · Injury · impact 0%
F. Azeez Unknown
Missing Fixture · Abdominal strain · impact 0%
E. Ferguson Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
J. Hinshelwood Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 2.3%
Y. Minteh Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
K. Mitoma Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
M. Svoboda Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.2%
S. Tzimas Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
M. Wieffer Defender
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 2.9%
Z. Yohanna Attacker
Missing Fixture · Lacking Match Fitness · impact 1.3%
J. Hadjam Defender
Questionable · Injury · impact 0%
Arsenal
W. Saliba Unknown
Missing Fixture · Back Injury · impact 0%
C. Mosquera Defender
Questionable · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
B. White Defender
Questionable · Groin Injury · impact 0%
W. Saliba Unknown
Missing Fixture · Back Injury · impact 0%
C. Mosquera Defender
Questionable · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
B. White Defender
Questionable · Groin Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
41% 36%
Draw
26% 26%
Away
33% 38%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 65.9% · edge +7.1 pts · odds 1.42
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Brighton played Arsenal. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 41% to Brighton, 26% to a draw and 33% to Arsenal.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Brighton have a 41% chance of winning. Draw probability is 26%. Arsenal have a 33% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.