Leeds vs Crystal Palace prediction
Premier League
Kickoff: 14:00
Final result
Leeds 0–0 Crystal Palace
Prediction published 20 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 20 Sep 2026, 16:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Leeds
M. Joseph Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
J. Rodon Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.5%
H. Wilson Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.7%
M. Joseph Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
J. Rodon Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.5%
H. Wilson Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.7%
Crystal Palace
A. Disasi Defender
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 2.7%
D. Henderson Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Foot Injury · impact 4.1%
J. Mateta Attacker
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 1.9%
C. Riad Defender
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 2%
A. Disasi Defender
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 2.7%
D. Henderson Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Foot Injury · impact 4.1%
J. Mateta Attacker
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 1.9%
C. Riad Defender
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 2%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
63% 68%
Draw
20% 18%
Away
17% 14%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
match winner · verified value edge
Home Win
Market 55.8% · edge +7.2 pts · odds 1.71
Lost
total goals · verified value edge
Over 2.5 Goals
Market 55.8% · edge +6.2 pts · odds 1.7
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Leeds played Crystal Palace. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 63% to Leeds, 20% to a draw and 17% to Crystal Palace.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Leeds have a 63% chance of winning. Draw probability is 20%. Crystal Palace have a 17% chance. Frozen selections: Home Win and Over 2.5 Goals.