Manchester City vs Sunderland prediction
Premier League
Kickoff: 14:00
Final result
Manchester City 5–3 Sunderland
Prediction published 20 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 20 Sep 2026, 16:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Manchester City
P. Foden Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 3.9%
J. Doku Unknown
Questionable · Calf Injury · impact 0%
P. Foden Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 3.9%
J. Doku Unknown
Questionable · Calf Injury · impact 0%
Sunderland
H. Diarra Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 1.7%
R. Mandava Defender
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 5%
R. Mundle Attacker
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 1.2%
O. Alderete Defender
Questionable · Injury · impact 0%
H. Diarra Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 1.7%
R. Mandava Defender
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 5%
R. Mundle Attacker
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 1.2%
O. Alderete Defender
Questionable · Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
62% 64%
Draw
22% 22%
Away
16% 14%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 61.6% · edge +10.4 pts · odds 1.55
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Manchester City played Sunderland. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 62% to Manchester City, 22% to a draw and 16% to Sunderland.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Manchester City have a 62% chance of winning. Draw probability is 22%. Sunderland have a 16% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.