Newcastle vs Hull City prediction
Premier League
Kickoff: 15:00
Final result
Newcastle 2–1 Hull City
Prediction published 19 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 19 Sep 2026, 17:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Newcastle
D. Burn Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
A. Dedic Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 4.9%
A. Elanga Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 4.1%
E. Jaouen Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 1.2%
Joelinton Unknown
Missing Fixture · Thigh Injury · impact 0%
Nico Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 3%
W. Osula Attacker
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 2%
J. Ramsey Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 2.1%
D. Burn Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
A. Dedic Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 4.9%
A. Elanga Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 4.1%
E. Jaouen Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 1.2%
Joelinton Unknown
Missing Fixture · Thigh Injury · impact 0%
Nico Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 3%
W. Osula Attacker
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 2%
J. Ramsey Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 2.1%
Hull City
I. Ansah Unknown
Missing Fixture · Back Injury · impact 0%
J. Butland Unknown
Missing Fixture · Arm Injury · impact 0%
D. Gyabi Unknown
Missing Fixture · Groin Injury · impact 0%
C. Hughes Unknown
Missing Fixture · Groin Injury · impact 0%
E. Matazo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
N. Mendy Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 4.1%
H. Morita Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Calf Injury · impact 1.7%
M. Targett Defender
Questionable · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
I. Ansah Unknown
Missing Fixture · Back Injury · impact 0%
J. Butland Unknown
Missing Fixture · Arm Injury · impact 0%
D. Gyabi Unknown
Missing Fixture · Groin Injury · impact 0%
C. Hughes Unknown
Missing Fixture · Groin Injury · impact 0%
E. Matazo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
N. Mendy Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 4.1%
H. Morita Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Calf Injury · impact 1.7%
M. Targett Defender
Questionable · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
37% 30%
Draw
24% 24%
Away
39% 46%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
both teams score · verified value edge
BTTS Yes
Market 55.9% · edge +5.1 pts · odds 1.67
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Newcastle played Hull City. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 37% to Newcastle, 24% to a draw and 39% to Hull City.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Newcastle have a 37% chance of winning. Draw probability is 24%. Hull City have a 39% chance. Frozen selections: BTTS Yes.