Nottingham Forest vs Coventry prediction
Premier League
Kickoff: 17:30
Final result
Nottingham Forest 0–1 Coventry
Prediction published 19 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 19 Sep 2026, 20:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Nottingham Forest
N. Milenkovic Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 4.1%
N. Savona Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Cunha Defender
Questionable · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
N. Milenkovic Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 4.1%
N. Savona Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Cunha Defender
Questionable · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
Coventry
A. Amenda Defender
Missing Fixture · Calf Injury · impact 5%
T. Awoniyi Attacker
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 3.7%
J. Eccles Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.2%
K. Kesler-Hayden Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
L. Woolfenden Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
H. Wright Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
A. Amenda Defender
Missing Fixture · Calf Injury · impact 5%
T. Awoniyi Attacker
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 3.7%
J. Eccles Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.2%
K. Kesler-Hayden Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
L. Woolfenden Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
H. Wright Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
62% 67%
Draw
24% 22%
Away
14% 11%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 68.5% · edge +11.5 pts · odds 1.38
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Nottingham Forest played Coventry. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 62% to Nottingham Forest, 24% to a draw and 14% to Coventry.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Nottingham Forest have a 62% chance of winning. Draw probability is 24%. Coventry have a 14% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.