Tottenham vs Aston Villa prediction
Premier League
Kickoff: 12:30
Final result
Tottenham 2–3 Aston Villa
Prediction published 19 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 19 Sep 2026, 15:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Tottenham
D. Kulusevski Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
M. Mudryk Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 1.4%
W. Odobert Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Richarlison Attacker
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 1.9%
X. Simons Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
D. Kulusevski Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
M. Mudryk Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 1.4%
W. Odobert Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Richarlison Attacker
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 1.9%
X. Simons Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Aston Villa
L. Goretzka Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
I. Maatsen Defender
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 4.8%
B. Madjo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
A. Onana Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
P. Torres Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 3.2%
M. Bizot Goalkeeper
Questionable · Back Injury · impact 0%
M. Cash Defender
Questionable · Injury · impact 0%
Joao Gomes Midfielder
Questionable · Calf Injury · impact 0%
L. Goretzka Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
I. Maatsen Defender
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 4.8%
B. Madjo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
A. Onana Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
P. Torres Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 3.2%
M. Bizot Goalkeeper
Questionable · Back Injury · impact 0%
M. Cash Defender
Questionable · Injury · impact 0%
Joao Gomes Midfielder
Questionable · Calf Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
51% 54%
Draw
26% 25%
Away
23% 21%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 65.9% · edge +13.1 pts · odds 1.42
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Tottenham played Aston Villa. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 51% to Tottenham, 26% to a draw and 23% to Aston Villa.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Tottenham have a 51% chance of winning. Draw probability is 26%. Aston Villa have a 23% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.