Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid prediction
La Liga
Kickoff: 15:15
Final result
Athletic Club 3–0 Atletico Madrid
Prediction published 5 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 5 Sep 2026, 18:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Athletic Club
P. Canales Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 4.1%
A. Djalo Attacker
Missing Fixture · Coach's decision · impact 1.3%
U. Egiluz Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
N. Serrano Unknown
Missing Fixture · Coach's decision · impact 0%
D. Vivian Unknown
Questionable · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
P. Canales Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 4.1%
A. Djalo Attacker
Missing Fixture · Coach's decision · impact 1.3%
U. Egiluz Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
N. Serrano Unknown
Missing Fixture · Coach's decision · impact 0%
D. Vivian Unknown
Questionable · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
Atletico Madrid
A. Sorloth Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
O. Vargas Unknown
Missing Fixture · Coach's decision · impact 0%
A. Sorloth Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
O. Vargas Unknown
Missing Fixture · Coach's decision · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
26% 23%
Draw
22% 22%
Away
52% 55%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Over 2.5 Goals
Market 50% · edge +12 pts · odds 1.91
Won
match winner · verified value edge
Away Win
Market 41.4% · edge +10.6 pts · odds 2.3
Lost
both teams score · verified value edge
BTTS Yes
Market 55.1% · edge +5.9 pts · odds 1.68
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Athletic Club played Atletico Madrid. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 26% to Athletic Club, 22% to a draw and 52% to Atletico Madrid.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Athletic Club have a 26% chance of winning. Draw probability is 22%. Atletico Madrid have a 52% chance. Frozen selections: Over 2.5 Goals, Away Win and BTTS Yes.