Real Betis vs Real Madrid prediction
La Liga
Kickoff: 20:00
Final result
Real Betis 1–0 Real Madrid
Prediction published 4 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 4 Sep 2026, 23:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Real Betis
D. Ceballos Unknown
Missing Fixture · Coach's decision · impact 0%
D. Conde Unknown
Missing Fixture · Shoulder Injury · impact 0%
A. Ezzalzouli Attacker
Missing Fixture · Illness · impact 1.4%
G. Lo Celso Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
A. Ruibal Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
D. Ceballos Unknown
Missing Fixture · Coach's decision · impact 0%
D. Conde Unknown
Missing Fixture · Shoulder Injury · impact 0%
A. Ezzalzouli Attacker
Missing Fixture · Illness · impact 1.4%
G. Lo Celso Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
A. Ruibal Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Real Madrid
R. Asencio Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
Eder Militao Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
Endrick Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
F. Mendy Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hip Injury · impact 0%
T. Pitarch Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Rodrygo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
A. Tchouameni Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
R. Asencio Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
Eder Militao Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
Endrick Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
F. Mendy Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hip Injury · impact 0%
T. Pitarch Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Rodrygo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
A. Tchouameni Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
36% 35%
Draw
27% 27%
Away
37% 38%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 50.9% · edge +23.1 pts · odds 1.87
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Real Betis played Real Madrid. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 36% to Real Betis, 27% to a draw and 37% to Real Madrid.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Real Betis have a 36% chance of winning. Draw probability is 27%. Real Madrid have a 37% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.