Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander prediction
La Liga
Kickoff: 17:30
Final result
Rayo Vallecano 3–2 Racing Santander
Prediction published 5 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 5 Sep 2026, 20:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Rayo Vallecano
A. Batalla Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Broken calfbone · impact 3.3%
M. Kumbulla Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
Luiz Felipe Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
I. Palazon Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.3%
J. Vertrouwd Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.9%
A. Batalla Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Broken calfbone · impact 3.3%
M. Kumbulla Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
Luiz Felipe Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
I. Palazon Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.3%
J. Vertrouwd Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.9%
Racing Santander
I. Luque Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
A. Martin Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 4.8%
I. Luque Unknown
Missing Fixture · Inactive · impact 0%
A. Martin Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 4.8%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
39% 37%
Draw
27% 28%
Away
34% 35%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 67.6% · edge +9.4 pts · odds 1.36
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Rayo Vallecano played Racing Santander. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 39% to Rayo Vallecano, 27% to a draw and 34% to Racing Santander.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Rayo Vallecano have a 39% chance of winning. Draw probability is 27%. Racing Santander have a 34% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.