Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna prediction
La Liga
Kickoff: 20:00
Final result
Villarreal 2–3 Deportivo La Coruna
Prediction published 5 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 5 Sep 2026, 22:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Villarreal
J. Foyth Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
J. Foyth Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
Deportivo La Coruna
A. Altimira Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 3.4%
N. Carrillo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
M. Casado Unknown
Missing Fixture · Coach's decision · impact 0%
A. Traore Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
A. Altimira Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 3.4%
N. Carrillo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
M. Casado Unknown
Missing Fixture · Coach's decision · impact 0%
A. Traore Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
36% 38%
Draw
28% 29%
Away
36% 33%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 65% · edge +15 pts · odds 1.43
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Villarreal played Deportivo La Coruna. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 36% to Villarreal, 28% to a draw and 36% to Deportivo La Coruna.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Villarreal have a 36% chance of winning. Draw probability is 28%. Deportivo La Coruna have a 36% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.