Athletic Club vs Elche prediction
La Liga
Kickoff: 17:30
Final result
Athletic Club 1–1 Elche
Prediction published 12 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 12 Sep 2026, 20:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Athletic Club
P. Canales Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 3.4%
U. Egiluz Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
G. Guruzeta Attacker
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 3.1%
D. Vivian Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
P. Canales Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 3.4%
U. Egiluz Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
G. Guruzeta Attacker
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 3.1%
D. Vivian Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
Elche
Y. Santiago Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Y. Santiago Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
59% 53%
Draw
21% 23%
Away
20% 24%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
both teams score · verified value edge
BTTS Yes
Market 49.3% · edge +9.7 pts · odds 1.88
Won
total goals · verified value edge
Over 2.5 Goals
Market 55.8% · edge +6.2 pts · odds 1.71
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Athletic Club played Elche. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 59% to Athletic Club, 21% to a draw and 20% to Elche.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Athletic Club have a 59% chance of winning. Draw probability is 21%. Elche have a 20% chance. Frozen selections: BTTS Yes and Over 2.5 Goals.