Celta Vigo vs Malaga prediction
La Liga
Kickoff: 13:00
Final result
Celta Vigo 1–1 Malaga
Prediction published 13 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 13 Sep 2026, 15:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Celta Vigo
A. Antanon Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 1.7%
J. El Abdellaoui Attacker
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 2.5%
A. Febas Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Ribs Injury · impact 2.6%
B. Iglesias Attacker
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.4%
A. Antanon Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 1.7%
J. El Abdellaoui Attacker
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 2.5%
A. Febas Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Ribs Injury · impact 2.6%
B. Iglesias Attacker
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.4%
Malaga
A. Aznou Defender
Missing Fixture · Illness · impact 1.2%
F. Calero Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ribs Injury · impact 0%
M. Diarra Unknown
Missing Fixture · Calf Injury · impact 0%
J. Lobete Attacker
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 1.3%
D. Murillo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
A. Ochoa Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
A. Pastor Defender
Missing Fixture · Illness · impact 1.2%
A. Aznou Defender
Missing Fixture · Illness · impact 1.2%
F. Calero Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ribs Injury · impact 0%
M. Diarra Unknown
Missing Fixture · Calf Injury · impact 0%
J. Lobete Attacker
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 1.3%
D. Murillo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
A. Ochoa Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
A. Pastor Defender
Missing Fixture · Illness · impact 1.2%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
54% 49%
Draw
23% 25%
Away
23% 26%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Over 2.5 Goals
Market 45.2% · edge +9.8 pts · odds 2.12
Lost
both teams score · verified value edge
BTTS Yes
Market 46.9% · edge +8.1 pts · odds 1.98
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Celta Vigo played Malaga. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 54% to Celta Vigo, 23% to a draw and 23% to Malaga.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Celta Vigo have a 54% chance of winning. Draw probability is 23%. Malaga have a 23% chance. Frozen selections: Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS Yes.