Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano prediction
La Liga
Kickoff: 20:00
Final result
Real Madrid 4–1 Rayo Vallecano
Prediction published 12 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 12 Sep 2026, 22:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Real Madrid
Eder Militao Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
F. Mendy Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hip Injury · impact 0%
Rodrygo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Eder Militao Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
F. Mendy Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hip Injury · impact 0%
Rodrygo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Rayo Vallecano
A. Batalla Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Broken calfbone · impact 2.8%
Luiz Felipe Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
R. Nteka Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.8%
I. Palazon Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.1%
F. Perez Attacker
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 2.6%
J. Vertrouwd Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.5%
J. de Frutos Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 4.6%
I. Balliu Defender
Questionable · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
M. Kumbulla Unknown
Questionable · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
A. Batalla Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Broken calfbone · impact 2.8%
Luiz Felipe Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
R. Nteka Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.8%
I. Palazon Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.1%
F. Perez Attacker
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 2.6%
J. Vertrouwd Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.5%
J. de Frutos Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 4.6%
I. Balliu Defender
Questionable · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
M. Kumbulla Unknown
Questionable · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
76% 83%
Draw
14% 11%
Away
10% 6%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
both teams score · verified value edge
BTTS Yes
Market 47.4% · edge +9.6 pts · odds 1.95
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Real Madrid played Rayo Vallecano. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 76% to Real Madrid, 14% to a draw and 10% to Rayo Vallecano.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Real Madrid have a 76% chance of winning. Draw probability is 14%. Rayo Vallecano have a 10% chance. Frozen selections: BTTS Yes.