Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid prediction
La Liga
Kickoff: 20:00
Final result
Real Sociedad 0–3 Atletico Madrid
Prediction published 13 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 13 Sep 2026, 22:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Real Sociedad
J. Martin Defender
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 4.4%
A. Odriozola Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
I. Zubeldia Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 4.7%
J. Martin Defender
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 4.4%
A. Odriozola Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
I. Zubeldia Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 4.7%
Atletico Madrid
P. Barrios Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 4.5%
J. Alvarez Attacker
Questionable · Injury · impact 0%
A. Sorloth Unknown
Questionable · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
P. Barrios Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 4.5%
J. Alvarez Attacker
Questionable · Injury · impact 0%
A. Sorloth Unknown
Questionable · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
46% 45%
Draw
25% 25%
Away
29% 30%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 63.5% · edge +8.5 pts · odds 1.48
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Real Sociedad played Atletico Madrid. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 46% to Real Sociedad, 25% to a draw and 29% to Atletico Madrid.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Real Sociedad have a 46% chance of winning. Draw probability is 25%. Atletico Madrid have a 29% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.