Sevilla vs Valencia prediction
La Liga
Kickoff: 20:00
Final result
Sevilla 1–0 Valencia
Prediction published 11 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 11 Sep 2026, 23:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Sevilla
A. Sangante Defender
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 3.5%
R. Vargas Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 1.4%
A. Sangante Defender
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 3.5%
R. Vargas Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 1.4%
Valencia
S. Canos Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
J. Copete Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
M. Diakhaby Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 4.2%
D. Foulquier Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.2%
D. Lopez Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
L. Rioja Attacker
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 2.2%
G. Rodriguez Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 3.1%
U. Sadiq Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 3.1%
S. Canos Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
J. Copete Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
M. Diakhaby Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 4.2%
D. Foulquier Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.2%
D. Lopez Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
L. Rioja Attacker
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 2.2%
G. Rodriguez Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 3.1%
U. Sadiq Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 3.1%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
61% 67%
Draw
20% 18%
Away
19% 15%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Over 2.5 Goals
Market 41% · edge +23 pts · odds 2.33
Lost
match winner · verified value edge
Home Win
Market 45.7% · edge +15.3 pts · odds 2.09
Won
both teams score · verified value edge
BTTS Yes
Market 47.2% · edge +12.8 pts · odds 1.96
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Sevilla played Valencia. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 61% to Sevilla, 20% to a draw and 19% to Valencia.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Sevilla have a 61% chance of winning. Draw probability is 20%. Valencia have a 19% chance. Frozen selections: Over 2.5 Goals, Home Win and BTTS Yes.