Alaves vs Valencia prediction
La Liga
Kickoff: 19:00
Final result
Alaves 0–1 Valencia
Prediction published 15 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 15 Sep 2026, 21:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Alaves
F. Garces Unknown
Missing Fixture · Suspended · impact 0%
A. Manas Attacker
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 2%
M. Rodriguez Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 1.7%
F. Garces Unknown
Missing Fixture · Suspended · impact 0%
A. Manas Attacker
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 2%
M. Rodriguez Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 1.7%
Valencia
S. Canos Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
J. Copete Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
M. Diakhaby Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 3.6%
D. Foulquier Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.2%
D. Lopez Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
U. Sadiq Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.7%
C. Tarrega Defender
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 4%
S. Canos Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
J. Copete Unknown
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
M. Diakhaby Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 3.6%
D. Foulquier Defender
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.2%
D. Lopez Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
U. Sadiq Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.7%
C. Tarrega Defender
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 4%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
75% 79%
Draw
16% 14%
Away
9% 7%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
match winner · verified value edge
Home Win
Market 51.4% · edge +23.6 pts · odds 1.86
Lost
total goals · verified value edge
Over 2.5 Goals
Market 42.8% · edge +16.2 pts · odds 2.23
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Alaves played Valencia. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 75% to Alaves, 16% to a draw and 9% to Valencia.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Alaves have a 75% chance of winning. Draw probability is 16%. Valencia have a 9% chance. Frozen selections: Home Win and Over 2.5 Goals.