Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna prediction
La Liga
Kickoff: 18:00
Final result
Atletico Madrid 4–0 Osasuna
Prediction published 16 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 16 Sep 2026, 20:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Atletico Madrid
J. Alvarez Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.7%
P. Barrios Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 3.9%
A. Sorloth Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
J. Alvarez Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.7%
P. Barrios Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 3.9%
A. Sorloth Unknown
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 0%
Osasuna
M. Gomez Attacker
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 3.4%
J. Herrando Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.8%
A. Oroz Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.5%
V. Rosier Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
M. Gomez Attacker
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 3.4%
J. Herrando Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.8%
A. Oroz Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.5%
V. Rosier Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
63% 63%
Draw
19% 20%
Away
18% 17%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
both teams score · verified value edge
BTTS Yes
Market 47.5% · edge +15.5 pts · odds 1.96
Lost
total goals · verified value edge
Over 2.5 Goals
Market 55.3% · edge +12.7 pts · odds 1.73
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Atletico Madrid played Osasuna. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 63% to Atletico Madrid, 19% to a draw and 18% to Osasuna.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Atletico Madrid have a 63% chance of winning. Draw probability is 19%. Osasuna have a 18% chance. Frozen selections: BTTS Yes and Over 2.5 Goals.