Barcelona vs Racing Santander prediction
La Liga
Kickoff: 20:30
Final result
Barcelona 7–2 Racing Santander
Prediction published 16 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 17 Sep 2026, 07:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Barcelona
R. Bardghji Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
F. de Jong Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
R. Bardghji Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
F. de Jong Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Racing Santander
A. Almeida Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 1.7%
S. Eriksson Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Shoulder Injury · impact 1.2%
A. Martin Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 3.4%
A. Almeida Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 1.7%
S. Eriksson Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Shoulder Injury · impact 1.2%
A. Martin Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 3.4%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
72% 75%
Draw
16% 15%
Away
12% 10%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 29.4% · edge +26.6 pts · odds 3.2
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Barcelona played Racing Santander. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 72% to Barcelona, 16% to a draw and 12% to Racing Santander.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Barcelona have a 72% chance of winning. Draw probability is 16%. Racing Santander have a 12% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.