Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla prediction
La Liga
Kickoff: 18:00
Final result
Deportivo La Coruna 0–1 Sevilla
Prediction published 16 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 16 Sep 2026, 20:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Deportivo La Coruna
T. Gijselhart Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Transfer negotiations · impact 1.4%
N. Carrillo Unknown
Questionable · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
T. Gijselhart Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Transfer negotiations · impact 1.4%
N. Carrillo Unknown
Questionable · Ankle Injury · impact 0%
Sevilla
A. Sangante Defender
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 3%
R. Vargas Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 1.4%
A. Sangante Defender
Missing Fixture · Ankle Injury · impact 3%
R. Vargas Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 1.4%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
43% 45%
Draw
24% 24%
Away
33% 31%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Over 2.5 Goals
Market 41.3% · edge +15.7 pts · odds 2.3
Lost
both teams score · verified value edge
BTTS Yes
Market 49.2% · edge +10.8 pts · odds 1.89
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Deportivo La Coruna played Sevilla. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 43% to Deportivo La Coruna, 24% to a draw and 33% to Sevilla.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Deportivo La Coruna have a 43% chance of winning. Draw probability is 24%. Sevilla have a 33% chance. Frozen selections: Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS Yes.