Malaga vs Villarreal prediction
La Liga
Kickoff: 20:30
Final result
Malaga 1–3 Villarreal
Prediction published 17 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 17 Sep 2026, 23:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Malaga
A. Aznou Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.2%
J. Cajuste Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.3%
M. Diarra Unknown
Missing Fixture · Calf Injury · impact 0%
J. Lobete Attacker
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 1.3%
D. Murillo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
A. Ochoa Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
F. Calero Unknown
Questionable · Ribs Injury · impact 0%
A. Aznou Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.2%
J. Cajuste Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 1.3%
M. Diarra Unknown
Missing Fixture · Calf Injury · impact 0%
J. Lobete Attacker
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 1.3%
D. Murillo Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
A. Ochoa Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
F. Calero Unknown
Questionable · Ribs Injury · impact 0%
Villarreal
J. Foyth Defender
Missing Fixture · Achilles Tendon Injury · impact 3.5%
J. Foyth Defender
Missing Fixture · Achilles Tendon Injury · impact 3.5%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
44% 44%
Draw
27% 26%
Away
29% 30%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 62.5% · edge +13.5 pts · odds 1.5
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Malaga played Villarreal. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 44% to Malaga, 27% to a draw and 29% to Villarreal.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Malaga have a 44% chance of winning. Draw probability is 27%. Villarreal have a 29% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals.