Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol prediction
La Liga
Kickoff: 18:00
Final result
Rayo Vallecano 2–1 Espanyol
Prediction published 15 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 15 Sep 2026, 21:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Rayo Vallecano
A. Batalla Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Broken calfbone · impact 2.5%
Luiz Felipe Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
R. Nteka Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.5%
I. Palazon Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.9%
J. Vertrouwd Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.2%
J. de Frutos Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 4%
A. Batalla Goalkeeper
Missing Fixture · Broken calfbone · impact 2.5%
Luiz Felipe Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
R. Nteka Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.5%
I. Palazon Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.9%
J. Vertrouwd Defender
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 2.2%
J. de Frutos Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Red Card · impact 4%
Espanyol
K. Garcia Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
A. Gorosabel Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
Jofre Attacker
Missing Fixture · Groin Injury · impact 1.4%
J. Puado Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
K. Garcia Unknown
Missing Fixture · Hamstring Injury · impact 0%
A. Gorosabel Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
Jofre Attacker
Missing Fixture · Groin Injury · impact 1.4%
J. Puado Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
36% 28%
Draw
24% 25%
Away
40% 47%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Over 2.5 Goals
Market 49.2% · edge +7.8 pts · odds 1.94
Won
both teams score · verified value edge
BTTS Yes
Market 53.8% · edge +5.2 pts · odds 1.72
Won
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Rayo Vallecano played Espanyol. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 36% to Rayo Vallecano, 24% to a draw and 40% to Espanyol.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Rayo Vallecano have a 36% chance of winning. Draw probability is 24%. Espanyol have a 40% chance. Frozen selections: Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS Yes.