Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo prediction
La Liga
Kickoff: 20:00
Final result
Real Sociedad 0–0 Celta Vigo
Prediction published 3 Sep 2026, 00:00 · evaluated 3 Sep 2026, 22:00
Win Probability
Win Distribution
Goal Market Predictions
Confidence Meter
Expected Goals Model
Player Availability & Line-ups
Only verified provider data can change the model. The original forecast remains recorded.
Real Sociedad
P. Marin Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
A. Odriozola Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
P. Marin Unknown
Missing Fixture · Injury · impact 0%
A. Odriozola Unknown
Missing Fixture · Knee Injury · impact 0%
Celta Vigo
A. Febas Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Ribs Injury · impact 3.6%
B. Iglesias Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.2%
A. Febas Midfielder
Missing Fixture · Ribs Injury · impact 3.6%
B. Iglesias Attacker
Missing Fixture · Muscle Injury · impact 1.2%
Confirmed starting line-ups received for both teams.
Updated after verified team news
Home
54% 56%
Draw
25% 25%
Away
21% 19%
Final Model Selections
Only markets clearing their sport-specific probability threshold are listed. These are model leans, not guarantees or assessments of bookmaker value.
total goals · verified value edge
Under 3.5 Goals
Market 70.6% · edge +5.4 pts · odds 1.33
Won
match winner · verified value edge
Home Win
Market 49.4% · edge +4.6 pts · odds 1.92
Lost
Archive Frozen Match Interpretation
Frozen pre-event record · archived interpretation
This page preserves the prediction published before Real Sociedad played Celta Vigo. It is not recalculated after the event.
Where the edge comes from
The frozen model assigned 54% to Real Sociedad, 25% to a draw and 21% to Celta Vigo.
Likely game script
The original pre-event probabilities and selections shown on this page are retained exactly for transparent review.
Key analytical factors
- •Published model version: football-poisson-2.3.
- •The probability record was frozen before the event.
- •Final scores and selection grading are added separately without changing the forecast.
How to read the market
Selections are historical model outputs, not current advice or retrospective picks.
What could invalidate the lean
- !Sports outcomes remain uncertain.
- !Historical performance does not guarantee future results.
Match Analysis
Real Sociedad have a 54% chance of winning. Draw probability is 25%. Celta Vigo have a 21% chance. Frozen selections: Under 3.5 Goals and Home Win.